Corporate Solar PPAs Slip 10% as GHG Rules Loom
Corporate solar PPAs fell 10% in 2025
Corporate power purchase agreement (PPA) volumes dropped by 10 % in 2025, the first decline in almost a decade, according to BloombergNEF’s market data. Renewabl CEO JP Cerda told pv magazine that the dip is linked to the pending GHG Protocol scope‑2 revision, which is sowing caution among large electricity buyers.
The GHG Protocol scope‑2 draft fuels uncertainty
The draft revision proposes moving from annual matching of renewable electricity certificates to hourly matching, meaning companies must prove that every hour of consumption is covered by generation in the same hour. The GHG Protocol’s public consultation notes that most reporting companies would be exempt from mandatory hourly matching, but the possibility of new rules is enough to make corporates pause their procurement decisions. Cerda summed it up: “Corporates are kind of waiting on the final decision on the protocol to see what kind of rules are going to be imposed on them.”
Hourly matching could reshape procurement and pricing
Hourly matching would force heavy‑load users that run at night to buy certificates for low‑solar‑output hours, driving higher premiums for off‑peak certificates. Cerda explained that today’s issuing bodies often lack hourly certificates, creating a “hard to know which hour to buy” problem. However, a Renewabl blog post argues that once the market matures, the price premium should shrink as certificate infrastructure catches up.
Battery storage becomes a decisive factor
Because hourly matching ties procurement to the actual generation profile, co‑located battery storage offers a way to shift solar output into the hours buyers need it. Cerda says storage “is a key element for this hourly transition,” enabling solar‑plus‑storage plants to sell “temporal liquidity” – buying cheap surplus certificates in daylight and reselling them for evening demand. The Zevero analysis echoes this, noting that 24/7 carbon‑free energy hinges on grid‑scale storage to meet hourly matching requirements.
Implications for solar developers
Developers face a double‑edged signal: oversupply of solar in Europe is already pushing prices down, and the shift to hourly matching will likely tilt demand toward wind, hybrid, and solar‑plus‑storage projects that can meet non‑daylight loads. In markets like the UK, wind farms are already selling “solar‑shaped” certificates, intensifying competition for solar developers.
What it means for Israel
Using the typical Israeli figures – a 1 MW solar‑plus‑storage plant in the central region yields about 1,700 MWh / yr (1,700 kWh per kW). At the residential‑type tariff of ₪0.48 /kWh, that energy is worth roughly ₪816,000 per year. Installation costs for commercial‑scale solar are about ₪2,200 /kW, so a 1 MW system costs ≈₪2.2 million. Simple payback = installation cost ÷ annual revenue ≈ 2.7 years, well within the typical 25‑year system life. Even if hourly matching introduces a modest premium for off‑peak certificates, the financial case remains attractive for Israeli firms seeking to meet future scope‑2 requirements.
Outlook and next steps
Cerda expects the market to rebound once the GHG Protocol finalises its guidance, noting that “any time there’s new legislation … there’s always a panic for a few months and then markets go back to normal.” A staged rollout—starting with large tech hyperscalers that already account for about 50 % of corporate PPA volume—could give the certification ecosystem time to mature. In the meantime, corporates are likely to experiment with 70 % hourly‑matched baselines as a pragmatic interim target.
What it means for Israel
- Financial case: A 1 MW solar‑plus‑storage PPA can pay for itself in under three years at current tariffs, even with a modest hourly‑matching premium.
- Regulatory watch: Israeli firms should keep an eye on the GHG Protocol’s final scope‑2 rules and any related guidance from the Electricity Authority.
- Strategic move: Companies that invest now in storage‑enabled solar projects will be better positioned for any future hourly‑matching requirements, reducing future compliance costs.
For a deeper dive into Israeli solar ROI, try our solar calculator and explore the latest market data on our data page.
Sources & further reading
FAQ
Why did corporate solar PPAs shrink in 2025?
Volumes fell 10% because companies are waiting for the GHG Protocol’s scope‑2 revision, which could require hourly matching of renewable electricity.
What is the GHG Protocol scope‑2 revision?
It proposes moving from annual to hourly matching of renewable certificates, meaning firms must prove each hour’s consumption is covered by generation in the same hour.
How will hourly matching affect corporate buyers?
Buyers will need to purchase higher‑priced, off‑peak certificates or add storage to shift solar generation into the hours they actually use.
Is battery storage now mandatory for corporate PPAs?
Not yet, but it’s becoming essential because storage can bridge the gap between solar output and the hourly matching requirement.
What does this mean for Israeli companies?
A 1 MW solar‑plus‑storage plant could pay for itself in under three years at typical Israeli tariffs, making early storage investment a smart hedge against future hourly‑matching rules.
When will the GHG Protocol finalize the new rules?
The timeline is still uncertain, but industry leaders expect a decision within the next 12‑18 months, after which the market is likely to recover.
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